The UK eating out market is experiencing one of its toughest periods. Costs of ingredients are increasing, along with employment costs, at the same time as a drop in footfall. This means that restaurants, pubs, and bakeries need to be ever more competitive and adapt to the changing needs of consumers.
In this guide, we will look at the trends and future predictions for the UK eating out market, including expert insights from the latest Meaningful Vision data. This will help you understand what is happening within the market and the opportunities available to respond to a challenging marketplace.
What is the UK Eating Out Market?
For the purposes of this article, when we discuss the eating out market, we are looking at quick-service restaurants, pubs, casual dining, coffee shops, and bakeries. It does not include events, catering or delivery apps.
The restaurant market is valued at around £100 billion a year in 2026, according to the latest Meaningful Vision data. This means that consumers are visiting restaurants, pubs, fast food outlets, bakeries or coffee shops around 125 times a year. Yet, for many fast food retailers, coffee shops, pubs and bakeries, this will feel very much at odds with what is experienced on the high street.
“2026 has been an incredibly tough year,” explains Maria Vanifatova, Founder of Meaningful Vision, “when you look into the details, the story is very different: one of declining footfall, increased overheads, and smaller profit margins. Last year was very hard, and this year, we can see that fast food has stopped growing, too”
The increase in value is inflation-led, with restaurants and pubs being hit the hardest by inflation levels.
Market Size Across Categories
Looking at the overall national story will not give you a true perspective on what is happening in the industry. Channel, location, and even daypart will all change the picture of the UK eating out market and having this micro-level of data to hand will help with long-term strategies for 2027.
Pubs and restaurants are hit particularly hard in 2026, and while the World Cup certainly gave a temporary boost to pubs over the summer, it was not enough to change the baseline footfall for the industry. Likewise, the World Cup made little difference to casual dining, as no one is going to a restaurant to watch a football game.
“Pubs and restaurants were down about 6% last year and about 7% this year,” explains Vanifatova, “so they’re declining from a declining base, roughly 13% below what they were in 2024, according to Meaningful Vision data”.
In the first half of 2026, fast food restaurants were also down by around 0.9%, according to Meaningful Vision data. Quick service restaurants have so far weathered the market downturn through new openings. As new openings slow, so does the footfall.
The same is true for coffee shops. In 2024, there was an increase of 4.5% in coffee shop openings; this dropped to 2.8% in 2025, and for 2026, we are seeing a 0.8% increase in new coffee shops across the UK.
“February and April were the worst months in the tracked history, with the market down about 3% in each category,” explains Vanifatova.
Yet, if we dig deeper into the quick service restaurant market, there is growth within the segments. Chicken has seen 8.9% growth, and Ethnic food 4.2% growth. This illustrates that the story is not the same across the board.
Likewise, 8 out of 13 UK regions have seen footfall declining this year, with the South West outperforming all regions with a 5.5% growth. This reflects the increase in staycations as consumers swap out European summer holidays for Devon and Cornwall, likely a result of the cost of living crisis and extreme temperatures in Europe.
Who Is Eating Out? Consumer Behaviour in 2026
We have already touched on one change in consumer behaviour, but Meaningful Vision data reveals more changes in how people are eating out in 2026.
If we look at dayparts, we can see that the 3-6pm slot is growing for both coffee shops and quick-service restaurants. This reflects a change in how younger people are accessing third spaces.
Newer American quick-service restaurant brands like Wingstop, Popeyes, and Dave’s Hot Chicken are expanding into the UK market. They offer young people a different space to meet up, with food and drink options that appeal, and a strong online presence.
Coffee shops are also seeing an uptick in footfall during this daypart. Again, offering drinks that are visually appealing and creating space for young people to socialise. Likewise, when we look at coffee pricing, we see the middle of the market taking a downturn as quick-service restaurants like McDonald’s and Popeyes are entering the coffee market and offering cheap alternatives.
At the premium end of coffee, brands like Gail’s, Black Sheep Coffee, and Blank Street are offering a wider range of cold drink options to attract customers.
“We expect drink sales to drop when there is a market contraction, but the opposite is true,” says Vanifatova, “cold drink assortments in quick-service restaurants have grown by 30% in the last 4 years, giving consumers more options.”
Matcha is now a menu item in its own right. Meaningful Vision data found 16 different Matcha drink options on the menu in June 2026, with items doubling on restaurant menus in the last two years. Matcha also commands a premium price, which consumers are willing to pay.
Why Gen-Z is Shifting to Coffee Shops
One of the biggest behavioural changes for Gen-Z is the shift from the pub to the coffee shop for socialising. There are several reasons why this is happening.
Firstly, coffee shops offer a more affordable way of socialising than the pub. The average cost of a coffee is far cheaper than a round in the pub or casual dining. Secondly, younger people are consuming less alcohol, so a coffee shop offers an alternative to the pub with more drink assortments. Thirdly, drinks are becoming more experiential, with matcha, iced coffee, lemonades and functional drinks entering the market.
It’s important to note that drinks are social media friendly; they are visually appealing and easy to share online. Plus, coffee shops offer the same informal and flexible meet-up place as a pub offers, with no pre-booking or table service.
Key Trends Shaping the UK Eating Out Market
Promotions are at record levels and at Meaningful Vision, we expect this to increase over the next year. “The number of promotional activities, especially for July and August, has doubled,” says Vanifatova.
Daily in-app promotions are used to attract consumers, and they are often targeted by the daypart. If we look at both Pret A Manger and Joe & The Juice, both offer daypart-specific promotions for breakfast and lunch.
“You need to run faster than the others. This is the key lesson of the current market state,” explains Vanifatova, “the speed, frequency and intensity of promotions have increased and will continue to do so.”
Limited time offers are also useful for pubs in order to attract footfall. “Pubs should borrow limited-time offers from quick-service restaurants to create the urgency, and encourage people to visit,” says Vanifatova.
Hospitality also needs to adapt to an increased use of GLP-1. While we do not see the full impact of this weight loss drug on the market as yet, there is a broader shift in portion control, lighter eating and mindful drinking.
Cost Pressures and Closures
The rise in the National Living Wage to £12.71 for those aged 21 and over has had a significant impact on the industry, particularly within casual dining where profit margins are already under pressure. Add the increase in employer National Insurance contributions, and this creates more overheads across the board.
Modelling from UK Hospitality expects significant sector closures in the UK, including 963 restaurants, 574 hotels, and 540 pubs. Do note that this is modelling and not an accurate picture of closures during this year. However, food inflation, particularly within the casual dining segment, is still very much above national inflation levels.
When you also add world politics and climate change, the cost of food manufacturing is also rising, which adds further pressure onto the industry.
UK Eating Out Market Outlook: 2027 and Beyond
When looking at the latest Meaningful Vision data, the expectation is that the summer improvement will return to previous levels in September and October. Casual dining and pubs will continue to remain under the most pressure from the market. Families and price-sensitive diners are likely to continue reducing their eating out habits to an occasional treat rather than regular events.
Chicken and ethnic categories are likely to still see a rise, especially with popular American brands still investing in new locations. We expect to see day-part focused brands and those offering appealing in-app promotions to maintain their market share.
Finally, drink assortments will influence footfall, especially new and trending drinks such as Ube and Cloud Coffees.
How can operators win customers back?
Taking into account the outlook for 2027, protecting and encouraging footfall is essential for operators. Here are ways in which you can do this:
1. Promotions by daypart
Using the latest data, develop promotions that appeal to consumers for the growing dayparts. This will help you be competitive and protect your footfall. You can also review what your competitors are pricing for their daypart promotions with Meaningful Vision. This will support your promotion strategy and allow operators to be more reactive to market changes.
2. Borrow limited-time offers from quick service restaurants
For pubs and casual dining looking to attract people, borrowing from what works within quick service can help with your footfall. It also recognises that the competition has expanded, with coffee shops and quick-service restaurants attracting the younger generation in early evening dayparts when they would have traditionally met in the pub.
3. Make drinks a growth platform
Consumers want exciting and appealing drinks. Your drink assortments can pull in customers, and keeping these refreshed can keep people coming back.
4. 3-6 pm is the growth daypart
Use daypart data to understand where consumers are going and why during this growth daypart to help make your location more appealing. This is location-sensitive, as the growth is more concentrated within city locations. Having the location-based data to hand will help you understand the opportunities within this area, which you can achieve through Meaningful Vision.
5. Use your app to learn as well as discount
Most big brands tie promotions to their app because “they want to get data”. An offer that brings a guest in is useful. An offer that also tells you who they are, when they visit and what they respond to is worth far more. Operators with a loyalty app should treat every promotion as a test.
6. Know where your customers have gone
All of this depends on knowing where guests have gone and why. That means tracking visits by day part, comparing your promotions and prices with competitors, and spotting shifts in the market as early as possible. Likewise, knowing about new store openings in your location can help you protect footfall.
How Meaningful Vision Can Help
With the latest and most relevant data, Meaningful Vision can help you discover what is driving footfall and how you can attract more consumers. We can help with your strategic promotions and pricing. By looking at daypart and location data, you can see what’s happening with your current and potential locations to make the best decisions for the changing market.
Get in touch to discuss how we can help
Maria Vanifatova
CEO, Meaningful Vision
___________________________________
UK Eating Out Market FAQs
How big is the UK eating out market?
The restaurant market is valued at around £100 billion a year in 2026, according to the latest Meaningful Vision data. However, the eating out market is in decline, with 2026 being one of the toughest years to date for operators.
Is the UK eating out market growing?
The UK eating out market has grown, but this is slowing, with the latest data showing a 0.9% decline in the fast food segment. Slower growth in 2026 is attributed to fewer openings than in previous years.
Which sector of eating out is growing fastest?
Chicken and ethic quick service restaurants are the fastest-growing areas of eating out, with pizza and burgers seeing the most decline. Pubs and casual dining are under the most pressure.
What is the outlook for the UK eating out market?
While there is a drop in footfall, there are many strategies that operators can use to protect their footfall and attract consumers. Using the latest data from Meaningful Vision can keep your brand up-to-date with the latest market changes and allow you to adapt at speed.
Why are UK restaurants closing?
UK restaurants have tight profit margins and are uniquely hit by rising food costs, fuel bills, increases in wages and National Insurance contributions. This means that inflation within casual dining is above national inflation rates. People are eating out less and changing their habits.