London, April 2025 – The UK hospitality industry began 2025 under pressure, with consumer caution, rising prices, and slowing expansion all shaping the market. However, new data from Meaningful Vision, which tracks over 60,000 of the UK’s top food outlets, reveals green shoots of recovery in key areas such as lunch trade, evening visits, and fast food expansion.
Store Growth: Fast Food Leads the Way
Between January and February 2025, the overall growth rate of new store openings rose by 1.0% compared to the same period in 2024. Fast food outlets outpaced the market with a 2.1% increase, while bakery & sandwich chains and quick-service ethnic concepts continued their 2024 growth trajectories. Chicken shops also benefitted from new international entrants.
Despite these gains, growth figures were slightly lower than early 2024, suggesting a modest deceleration in expansion.
Consumer Traffic: Footfall Declines, but Timing Matters
Overall traffic across the sector fell by 2% in early 2025 compared to last year. Restaurants saw the steepest drop at -7.7%, and pubs also struggled, down 6.2%. The decline was partly influenced by calendar effects, with one fewer trading day in February compared to 2024.
By time of day, the picture was mixed. Morning visits declined after a strong 2023, but the afternoon (3–6pm) showed a 1.7% increase, while evening traffic edged up by 1.1%. Bakeries and coffee shops played a central role in driving post-lunch and post-work visits.
Regional Performance: London Outshines the Market
London continues to outperform the UK market. Footfall in the capital grew by 0.9% year-on-year in early 2025, compared with a national decline of 2.8%. This trend echoes 2024, when London was up 3.9% versus a national drop of 0.8%.
Prices and Promotions: Rising Costs, Smarter Tactics
The start of 2025 saw restaurant prices climb by 6% and retail prices by 3%, building on December’s upward trend. Promotional activity remains a crucial tool to support demand: while restaurants boosted promotions by 25% in 2024, the first two months of 2025 already show a further 15% increase.
Special prices remain the most common tactic in restaurants (71% of price promotions in 2024), while delivery channels increasingly lean on percentage discounts, which jumped from 34% in 2023 to 49% in 2024—a trend continuing into this year.
CEO Perspective: Resilience Through Data and Agility
Maria Vanifatova, CEO of Meaningful Vision, commented: “As predicted, the start of 2025 has been tough, with consumers adjusting spending habits in response to economic uncertainty. Price sensitivity is particularly evident, with restaurant price increases of 6% in Jan–Feb and further inflation expected from April.
Despite these challenges, there are glimmers of positivity. Fast food outlets are expanding, and both afternoon and evening traffic are showing early signs of recovery. Health-focused chains are also gaining momentum, supported by rising office attendance and demand for convenient lunch and coffee options.
Limited-Time Offers, meal deals, and healthier menus are already proving effective. To remain resilient in 2025, operators must closely monitor consumer trends, understand which promotions resonate, and adapt quickly to shifting behaviour.”
While the hospitality sector faces ongoing cost pressures and cautious consumers, the first months of 2025 highlight opportunities for recovery. With smarter promotions, growth in fast food and health-oriented concepts, and the return of office workers boosting daytime trade, there are reasons for optimism in the months ahead.
About Meaningful Vision
Meaningful Vision is a leading provider of market intelligence for the hospitality industry, delivering insights into pricing, promotions, location strategies, and traffic data across the UK, Ireland, France, and Germany. By analysing the behaviour of 10 million UK consumers and tracking over 500,000 price points annually, Meaningful Vision empowers operators and suppliers to benchmark performance against competitors and identify new avenues for growth.