Recent data analysis by Meaningful Vision shows Ireland’s foodservice industry is developing somewhat unevenly this year. Dublin has experienced declines in both outlet numbers and traffic, while Northern and Western Ireland have demonstrated clear growth. Performance also varies sharply by format, bakeries and sandwich shops continue to lose ground while pizza operators show notable gains. Simultaneously, in the first half of the year fast-food traffic has shifted significantly away from morning and late evening occasions towards the middle of the day.
Regional Growth: Dublin Slows as Counties Accelerate
Unlike last year, Dublin is no longer the chief focus of foodservice expansion in Ireland. Meaningful Vision’s Store Intelligence data shows Dublin’s fast-food store count fell by 7% year-on-year, signalling both a maturing market and intensifying competition in the capital. While Dublin still possesses the highest outlet density (40.2 locations per 100,000 people) operators are increasingly looking beyond the city.
The Northern and Western regions posted a 3% increase in outlet numbers in H1 2025, supported by active expansion from burger, coffee, and chicken chains. The Northern region stands out as the strongest performer recording an impressive 18% growth fuelled by cross-border investment and a wave of new market entrants.
County-level trends reinforce the idea that decentralisation from the capital is underway. Westmeath (38.5 outlets per 100,000) and Louth now sit close behind Dublin in density, while Kildare, Limerick, Galway, and Waterford all exceed or approach the national average – 28 fast-food outlets per 100,000 people. In contrast, counties such as Wexford, Clare, Roscommon, and Cavan remain significantly under-served, offering meaningful headroom for future development. Growth in Cork, Galway, and Louth has been particularly strong. Cork registered 1% outlet expansion, supported by key suburban openings.
Meaningful Vision CEO Maria Vanifatova notes: ”Although Ireland recorded a modest 3% decline in total chained fast-food outlets in H1, this headline number conceals a fundamental split: contraction in Dublin, versus accelerating development across the counties/regions. Increasingly, openings are occurring outside the capital where density is lower. Recent openings, such as Taco Bell in Meath in September 2025 and Wendy’s in Cork in October 2025, reinforce this trend and validate the strong growth potential in the counties.”
Segment Dynamics: Pizza Rises, Bakeries Decline
Segment performance has shifted sharply alongside changing daypart behaviour. Bakery and sandwich outlets saw the steepest declines, with footfall down 6%, and a further 7% drop linked to store closures among familiar names such as Thunders Home Bakery and O’Briens. With fewer consumers starting their day on the go, formats reliant on breakfast trade and morning coffee runs have been hit hardest.
By contrast, Pizza emerged as the strongest performer, gaining 2% in share. Its resilience is supported by strong delivery demand, earlier evening peaks, and solid value perception. Ethnic outlets posted a modest +1%, while coffee (0%), burger (-1%), and chicken (-1%) remained broadly stable, each supported by rising midday and afternoon traffic.
Meanwhile, ethnic formats also show notable pressure in parts of the market, declining by as much as 12% where smaller operators are struggling with rising costs and shifting dining habits. The clear winners are segments that perform well between 11am and 6pm while offering flexible price points for value-conscious consumers.
Traffic Shifts: Midday Dominance and Afternoon Momentum
This regional reshaping is accompanied by a profound shift in when Irish consumers choose to dine out. Hybrid and remote work is now adopted by roughly 65% of Irish employees, well above the EU average (58% according to Eurofound) and it has effectively redefined meal timing.
Morning traffic has slipped from 18% to 15%, while lunchtime has inched upward from 30% to 31%, driven largely by coffee shops and burger operators capturing later first visits.
The afternoon period has become the standout performer: traffic between 3pm and 6pm has grown from 30% to 32%, making it the fastest-rising daypart of the year, helped in particular by strong performance in burger and pizza outlets.
Meanwhile, late-evening dining has softened, with the 9pm+ window declining from 8% to 7% as more consumers opt to stay home at night.
Interestingly, daypart trends show uneven patterns during a week, with Mondays and Fridays contributing most to traffic moving from morning to lunch, and weekends driving a shift from mid-afternoon (3–6 PM) to evening.
Christmas 2025: Familiar Flavours and Value-Driven Festivity
Despite a challenging year, Ireland’s foodservice sector is showing signs of quiet recovery as it heads into the festive period. Overall consumer traffic has been under pressure during the last 9 months, with restaurants reporting a 2.7% decline and fast-food inching ahead by 0.7%. Inflation has played a decisive role: driven primarily by rising agricultural costs, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices reached 5% toward the end of the last quarter which slowed consumption across the sector.
Yet the trajectory has shifted in recent months. Restaurant visitation has improved slightly over the last two quarters, suggesting that consumers are beginning to adjust to higher prices and are returning to dining out more frequently. This gradual stabilisation underpins a cautiously optimistic outlook for Christmas trading. With the festive season traditionally delivering a meaningful uplift, operators expect stronger December volumes that could help push full-year performance closer to pre-summer expectations.
Average two-course festive options priced at around €34.50 this year and three-course menus coming in closer to €45.30.
As it prepares to enter 2026, Ireland’s foodservice market is being reshaped in subtle but significant ways. Regional hubs are expanding, the 11am to 6pm window has become the new commercial backbone, and prices are growing faster than a year ago. Operators who have the foresight to adjust their footprint, timing, and menus to match these evolving patterns will be best positioned to capture the opportunities ahead.