UK fast-food ended 2025 in positive territory, but headlines reporting growth in the sector fail to convey the full story. Meaningful Vision data indicates fast-food remains the most resilient segment of the UK foodservice market, but growth is increasingly expansion-led rather than demand-led.
Fast-food traffic grew by 0.9% in 2025, outperforming restaurants and pubs which together recorded a 6% decline in visits year-on-year, yet this growth was driven almost entirely by new openings. Chains expanded their outlet base by nearly 2%, yet they experienced a decline of around -1% in like-for-like visits when the impact of new openings are removed from the calculation.
1,200 New Outlets, Uneven Returns
Meaningful Vision tracks more than 60,000 UK foodservice outlets, data collected throughout 2025 shows that fast-food operators opened close to 1,300 new locations. Chicken brands were the most aggressive, expanding at more than three times the average pace of other fast-food segments.
While this expansion continues to lift total footfall, it is also intensifying pressure on existing stores. With traffic growth lagging behind outlet growth, average visits per store are declining across much of the sector.
Chicken, Coffee, and Bakery Lead the Field
According to Meaningful Vision’s analysis, quick-service chicken restaurants were the strongest performers in 2025 with footfall up nearly 6% year-on-year. Bakery and sandwich formats follow with growth of around 3%, while coffee shops recorded a 2% rise.
Other categories struggled to maintain momentum. Burger chains saw visits fall by 2%, while ethnic fast-food formats also declined. These segments face a combination of rising input costs, with inflation affecting beef prices in particular, and intense competition within increasingly crowded value tiers.
Bakeries accounted for the largest number of new store openings in absolute terms, with Greggs remaining the most prolific operator by volume. Popeyes emerged as the fastest-growing chicken brand in percentage terms, proof of enduring opportunities in the UK to rapidly scale a new concept or brand.
Regional Shifts Redraw the Growth Map
London, historically the engine of restaurant growth, is no longer leading fast-food expansion. Meaningful Vision’s data shows that Northern Ireland delivered the strongest growth in 2025, followed by the South of England, reflecting lower saturation levels and more targeted development strategies.
Inflation Reshapes Value Perceptions
Food and beverage inflation reached around 4.5% by the end of 2025, but fast-food menu prices rose significantly faster at approximately 8% year-on-year to December. This results in a 2.6% increase for 2025, which is more than twice the rate affecting retail prices.
Labour costs remain the primary driver of price inflation and typically account for up to 35% of operating costs. Minimum wage increases and higher National Insurance contributions have left operators with limited options to meet rising expenses beyond passing the cost on to consumers. Burger chains recorded the steepest menu price increases at around 10%, followed by chicken operators at more than 6%, while pizza remained the most price-competitive segment at around 3%.
Promotions Shift from Tactical to Structural
As prices rise, promotions are no longer deployed as tactical tools but have become mechanisms for structural growth. Meaningful Vision data shows that the number of promotions run through brand apps increased by 23%, while promotional activity on other delivery platforms more than doubled in 2025. Average discounts for delivery reached around 30%. Uber Eats, Deliveroo, and Just Eat intensified price competition through deep discounts and free-item promotions, particularly within the pizza segment.
Increasingly, meal deals and limited-time offers play a central role on menus. £5 has emerged as a key psychological price point, even as average meal deal prices continue to rise. Lower-priced LTOs are helping brands drive trial and repeat visits while managing value perception.
Growth With Constraints
In 2026 the fast-food industry is expected to remain buoyant, despite predictions consumers will continue to trade down from casual dining. Premium fast-food and fast-casual formats are particularly well positioned, supported by stronger digital engagement and value propositions.
Meaningful Vision sees like-for-like traffic remaining under pressure, as expected wage increases will likely translate into further price rises for consumers. In this environment, sustainable growth will depend less on intuition and more on precise information, and granular intelligence.
“Rising inflation has fundamentally changed how people eat out,” said Maria Vanifatova, CEO and Founder of Meaningful Vision. “Restaurants and pubs now have less choices when it comes to managing price increases and protecting margins, especially with further planned increases to the minimum wage likely to disproportionately affect hospitality. This drives more consumers to trade down, switching to fast-food and fast-casual options which feel like better value.”
“At the same time, the growth of brands such as Popeyes and Wingstop highlights how new concepts are still finding room to scale in the UK market, especially in the fast-food segment. Premium fast-food brands, in particular, have digital in their DNA and are using that to engage younger audiences. For these reasons, we see the rise of premium fast-food at the expense of casual dining as a long-term trend that will continue through 2026 and into 2027.”
To learn more on the specific Coffee and Bakery market trends in 2025 you can read our article and download the full report.