“Greggs over pub grub” – Brits opt for fast food, as inflation bites
- The cost of eating out has risen at more than twice the pace of retail food and beverage inflation – 2.6% versus 1.2%
- Restaurants and pubs see visits fall -6.8% compared to a 0.9% rise for fast-food outlets
- Chicken restaurants perform strongly, while burger chains see biggest falls as beef prices increase
- Fast-food operators also add nearly 2% more stores in 2025, with Greggs and Popeyes leading the way
New research released today shows that British diners are increasingly turning their backs on the traditional pub and restaurant meal out, instead opting for ‘fast casual’ options, such as Nando’s and Wagamama, or premium fast-food outlets, like Five Guys and Wingstop.
According to Meaningful Vision’s full-year 2025 data – which tracks consumer traffic, pricing, promotions, and store openings across more than 60,000 top UK fast food and casual dining outlets – restaurant and pub visits fell by -6.8% last year, while fast-food traffic rose by 0.9% over the same period.
Despite fast food proving more resilient, absorbing visits lost by restaurants and pubs, overall demand remains fragile. The sector’s growth was driven primarily by expansion, with outlet numbers rising by nearly 2%, resulting in a -1% decline in like-for-like fast-food visits (stripping out the impact of new openings).
Bakeries accounted for the highest number of new store openings, with Greggs launching the most of any fast-food brand last year. However, chicken chain Popeyes was the fastest growing brand in percentage terms, as its UK expansion continued.
Performance also varied sharply by fast-food segment. Chicken restaurants were the strongest performers, with footfall up 5.9% year-on-year; followed by coffee shops, which recorded 3.6% growth; and bakery and sandwich shops, which added 2.6%. Other categories struggled to maintain momentum; burger chain visits fell by -2.9%, while ethnic fast-food formats declined by -1.6%, reflecting fiercer competition and growing price sensitivity among consumers.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that food and beverage prices have continued to rise significantly, up 4.5% year-on-year between December 2024 and 2025 – indicating a 1.2% rise for the calendar year. However, the cost of fast food has run even hotter, with a 7.7% year-on-year rise to December and a 2.6% increase for 2025 – more than twice the rate of retail prices.
While expected, this reflects the higher cost base in foodservice, largely driven by labour costs – which typically account for up to 35% of operating costs – alongside higher property taxes, and rising food input prices. The rising cost of beef likely led to burger outlets recording the steepest menu price increases at around 10% year-on-year, compared to the historically more competitive pizza segment, which saw the lowest increase at 3%.
Maria Vanifatova, CEO and Founder of Meaningful Vision, said: “Looking at our 2025 data, it’s clear that rising inflation has fundamentally changed how people eat out. Restaurants and pubs are facing higher costs, which leaves them with little choice but to push prices up to protect margins – and it’s difficult to see that changing, with further minimum wage increases this year likely to disproportionately affect hospitality. That is leading to more consumers trading down – switching to fast food and fast casual options that feel like better value.
“At the same time, the growth of Popeyes and Wingstop is indicative of new brands and concepts entering the market in the UK. And premium fast food brands, in particular, have digital in their DNA and are using that to their advantage, engaging with Gen Z audiences. For those reasons, we believe the rise of premium fast food, at the expense of casual dining, is a long-term trend that will continue to play out this year and into 2027.”