2024 proved to be a year of mixed fortunes for fast-food in the UK, with some segments thriving, while others grappled with a variety of challenges. Meaningful Vision’s Foodservice market insights reveal a dynamic marketplace shaped by rapidly evolving consumer preferences, an increasing range of economic pressures, and intensifying competition.
Segment Performance: Winners and Losers
Out of home consumer behaviour patterns showed significant variation across fast-food categories. Bakeries and sandwich shops emerged as the star performers, enjoying a 4.7% surge in foot traffic. This impressive growth was fueled by the expansion of major chains like Greggs, Gail’s, and Pret A Manger, capitalising on an enduring demand for convenient and affordable meal options, and highlighting the importance of restaurant location assessment and geographical sales area analysis as integral elements of a successful marketing strategy. Ethnic fast-food also demonstrated robust growth, with a 2.6% increase in traffic. Brands like Chopstix, Itsu, and German Doner Kebab played a prominent role in this segment’s success, reflecting a burgeoning appetite for diverse culinary experiences. Coffee shops, while not experiencing the same explosive growth, maintained a steady, albeit slower pace.
The chicken segment requires a more nuanced understanding. While overall traffic in 2024 declined by 1.9%, a resurgence in Q4 marked by a 1.1% increase in customer visits offered a glimmer of hope. This recovery can be attributed, in part, to the arrival and expansion of prominent American chicken chains, reigniting consumer interest in this category. Conversely, the burger segment faced significant headwinds, experiencing a notable decline in foot traffic. This suggests that the once-dominant burger chains are facing increasing competition from other fast-food categories, emphasising the need for ongoing competitive analysis in the Foodservice industry.
Daypart Dynamics: Shifting Consumer Habits
Consumer traffic patterns throughout the day underwent significant shifts in 2024. Morning visits witnessed substantial footfall growth, with the 6am – 9am slot increasing by 14%, and the 9 am – 12pm period by 7%. These rises reflect a trend among consumers for on-the-go breakfast, fuelled by the steady stream of workers returning to the office after a prolonged absence, an obvious benefit to bakeries, sandwich shops, and coffee chains. Some burger outlets experienced increased morning sales thanks in part to expanding breakfast menus. Lunchtime also saw a modest, somewhat slower increase in traffic. However, the late afternoon and evening periods tell a different story, with overall traffic declining. The most significant drop occurred after 7 pm, with a substantial 12.3% decrease in footfall indicating a change in consumer dining habits during these later hours. These daypart dynamics underscore the importance of understanding Deliveries and Dine-In orders across different times of the day.
Regional Performance: London Leads the Way
Cross country analysis and Geographical sales area analysis are crucial to understanding regional performance variations. London stands out with nearly 4% growth in overall fast-food traffic. The capital’s high population density, strong commuter base, diverse food scene, and generally higher incomes contribute to the resilience of its fast-food market. Other major cities, including Manchester, Birmingham, and Glasgow, experienced more moderate traffic increases reflecting stable but less rapid expansion. By contrast, smaller cities and regional towns faced declining foot traffic, suggesting that economic pressures and shifting consumer spending patterns are impacting upon demand for fast-food more profoundly in areas beyond the major urban centres.
Looking Ahead: The Competitive Landscape in 2025
As the UK’s fast-food industry braces for a fiercely competitive 2025, brands must quickly adapt to changing consumer preferences, economic uncertainties, and evolving market dynamics. Data driven decision making and effective pricing consultancy & optimisation are essential tools in planning and executing a successful marketing strategy. Meaningful Vision CEO Maria Vanifatova offers her insights: “The UK fast-food market will remain highly competitive in 2025. While burger chains still hold a significant market share, they face increasing pressure from other categories, especially chicken and ethnic fast-food. Chicken chains are poised for even faster growth this year, driven by the fact that chicken consumption is currently 2.5 times higher than beef in retail, yet beef still dominates the fast-food arena due to the popularity of burgers, indicating a great potential for chicken chains to capture more market share. Bakeries and coffee shops are another segment where we anticipate heightened competition and continued growth, supported by the ongoing return to office work. Ultimately, the winners in 2025 will be those operators who can effectively leverage data-driven insight into consumer behaviour, daypart dynamics, and segment trends. Menu innovation, Strategic pricing, and targeted Foodservice Promotion will play an important role in sustaining interest and driving sales.”
Foodservice price tracking and benchmarking against competitors will also be essential for success. New product development and a focus on foodservice innovation will help brands differentiate themselves and attract customers in this competitive market.
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