Christmas dining is getting more expensive, but the story behind the price rises is more nuanced than it first appears.
Our latest Meaningful Vision data shows that the average price of a three-course festive dinner across UK restaurant and pub chains has now reached £36 per person. While some of the big pub groups are reporting stronger Christmas bookings, the wider market picture remains challenging. Over the nine months to September, UK pub sales were flat overall, footfall fell by 6%, and restaurants experienced even sharper declines. For many locations, that translates into around 300 fewer visits per month – and the impact is often greater for independent operators.
Rising costs continue to shape pricing decisions. Fast-food menu prices are up around 7% year-on-year, largely driven by higher labour costs. Christmas menus, however, have increased by a more modest 4% on average. Dig a little deeper and a clear split emerges. Around 65% of operators have raised festive prices above inflation, while 20% have held prices steady and 15% have actually reduced them compared with last year.
These figures reflect two distinct strategies. Some businesses are keeping prices lower to try to slow the decline in footfall. Others are leaning into the Christmas period to maximise revenue after several years of sustained margin pressure.
We’re also seeing changes in menu structure. About one in five restaurants have dropped their two-course Christmas option altogether, moving to three-course menus that are typically around £5 more expensive. Complimentary drinks are also disappearing from some festive packages, with food-only offers becoming more common as operators look to protect profitability.
Which approach will deliver the best results remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Christmas dining is still an important moment for families and friends to come together – and for many consumers, it remains an affordable treat. December will be a crucial month for the sector, and we’re hopeful it brings a welcome boost in visits.
Talk to our experts to get more details on the Foodservice industry trends and seasonal challenges in the UK.